A famous adage says……Change is constant! This cliché is truly clichéd but what I realized recently was how true it was. Not all clichés sound to be true but they do so only when you experience them. Change I suppose is everyone’s partner throughout the life, and so is mine. I was thinking about the way I had evolved as a person, in terms of behavior, attitude, thinking, habits, likings – things which I never thought would change over time. And the best part of all this is I never realized when this transition happened!

I never realized when I changed from being a stubborn tot to a gullible boy, and from that to an emotional buffoon. I never realized when I stopped caring for my studies and started caring for things which never interested me in school/college. I never realized when I changed from being overly cautious to easy-going. I never realized when I changed from being laconic to a chatter box. I never realized when I changed from being introvert to (relatively) an extrovert. I never realized when I changed from a calculative mind to a spendthrift. I never realized when I changed from a timid guy to fearless and adventurous human. I never realized when I changed from a simple character to a complex individual or probably the other way round. I never realized when I started finding bliss in simpler things that life has to offer.

But then that is the beauty of life. One never knows when you change, and when you look back, you can’t even point out what brought about those changes!

Characters –

• Saurabh Rathi (Rathi) - Me :)
  
• Pradeep Polawar (Polya) – My roommate
• Rajesh Agrawal (Raju) – My school/college friend
• Nilesh Yerawar (Yera ) – My college friend
• Ritesh Ganeriwal (Ricky) - My college friend
• Manoj Kurkure (Maku) - My college friend

This weekend came as a welcome change. Firstly, pre-monsoon showers really cooled off the hot’n’humid Mumbai. Secondly, Raju called me on Friday afternoon revealing his pleasantly surprising decision to visit Mumbai. Little did I know that this weekend would turn out to be so much fun.

After a heavy dinner, myself and Raju strolled along Marine Drive enjoying the cool weather and stormy sea. Chat continued back in the room and late in the night we decided to go to Adlabs Imax to see Sarkar Raj on Saturday. I tried desperately to download Sarkar as I hadn’t seen it but to no avail. The net speed was not sufficient enough for the same.

Raju booked tickets for me, Maku and himself for the 12:15 pm show on Saturday morning. We planned to leave by 11:00 am thinking that 75 min was a sufficient buffer. Minutes before we stepped out, it started raining heavily. I managed to get an umbrella. Ran outside to get the printout of the ticket and realized that the soft copy of the ticket wasn’t loaded in the pen drive. Had to run back to the room to get the same. And the poor umbrella couldn’t save me from the heavy rain. Finally got the printout and hopped into a taxi. Reached Wadala station and enquired with about 2-3 people which side was Imax. As Murphy’s law goes, it turned out to be the wrong way. Then we walked upto the flyover (it was still raining and the clock was ticking faster) and heaved a sigh of relief to see quite a few taxis. But no one was ready to go to Imax. Finally got a bus and reached Imax. (The road with no habitation around seemed to be a familiar part of Ramsay horror movie.) The movie had already started by then.

About the movie, I felt the movie is well made (just like Jodha Akbar). Actors and Director have done a great job. But overall, given the hype, I still feel people might be a bit disappointed. There are so many characters in the movie that none of them get enough screen space to make a mark. Amitabh is his usual self and just breezes through the role so easily as is expected from him. Aishwarya looks pretty in her western attire and cries a lot in the movie. That’s the only thing she does in the movie. Abhishek is superb and the chemistry between the Bachchans surely looks great on screen. He looks convincing as a son of Subhash Nagre, the father and as a son of the soil, Maharashtra. But again, I would have loved to see more of Abhishek’s role in the movie. That’s the only saddening part of the movie. Rest actors too have done well. Overall a good time pass.

We moved out of the hall and it was still raining. We decided to go to Vashi to meet Yera. We got a cab after much search in the rain and reached the railway station only to realize that the trains on that route had been cancelled. Had a sumptuous meal given the conditions around(grilled sandwich only) and reached out for a bus to Churchgate. By now, all the hope of going anywhere else had died down. Luckily we got a bus which took eternity to get us to Churchgate but kudos to Maku, for making the journey less taxing by getting chips and biscuits to munch on.

As we reached my room, having drenched in rain, my body gave up. Sore throat. Body ache. So as if I was only searching for a reason, I slept off just to get up for the food we got from Pratap Restaurant as an experiment. It was a successful experiment. And after finishing the dinner, I went back in my BLISS mode.

Next day, Yera came over to Churchgate as myself, Raju, Yera and Ricky had planned to go Band-stand. Myself and Raju were equally excited for obvious reasons and we hadn’t been there earlier. Yera came over by 4 pm. We chatted for about an hour and then stepped out with umbrellas (it was raining already). As Ricky would have taken some more time, we decided to go to Marine Drive for a walk and then head for Bandra. When we reached Marine Drive, none of us could control the desire to soak ourselves in the rain just like so many people there – kids, teens, people both young and old – just about everyone! Not wasting a moment, we shut off our umbrellas and decided to experience the TRUE nature. I couldn’t resist the temptation to call Polya as well. And he came gleefully to enjoy the fresh rain along the seaside. So here we were. All the plans of going to Band-Stand had subsided by now as we were thoroughly enjoying the experience. We walked till Nariman Point and back, took a round along station and enjoying peanuts, chai and chanachor along the way. It was a re-energizing experience for all of us. Completely drenched in the rain water and sea water, we just didn’t realize when the time went by. Sea waves reaching the pavement and cool breeze making you tremble and with so many happy faces around truly made it much more exciting and relishing. It was a first for (I guess) all of us and this weekend would surely be there in our memory for a long long time. We met Ricky in the evening and had fun recollecting our BITS experiences. An overly fatty dinner at Bhagat Tarachand with gulab jamun and daal ka seera and a paan top it was a fitting end to one of my most enjoyable weekend in Mumbai.

Thanks Rajesh, Polya, Yera, Ricky and Maku for this treat!

"Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair." -- Sam Ewing.

Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services. It is measured as an annual percentage increase. As inflation rises, every rupee you own buys a smaller percentage of a good or service.

Types of inflation are –

Deflation is when the general level of prices is falling. This is the opposite of inflation.

Hyperinflation is unusually rapid inflation. In extreme cases, this can lead to the breakdown of a nation's monetary system. One of the most notable examples of hyperinflation occurred in Germany in 1923, when prices rose 2,500% in one month!

Stagflation is the combination of high unemployment and economic stagnation with inflation. This happened in industrialized countries during the 1970s, when a bad economy was combined with OPEC raising oil prices.

Causes of inflation are -

Cost-push inflation: Occurs when there is supply side constraint. Supply side constraint may occur due to several reasons like low production, increase in input costs, international conflicts etc. Generally there is little a government can do to increase the supply.

Demand-pull inflation: Occurs when the demand increases significantly. The increase in demand is attributed to the fact that there is excess liquidity in the market and people have high purchasing power.

Built in inflation: Most of the time employees force the employers to increase their wages.Due to increase in the wages the cost of production increases. In order to minimize loss the manufacturer passes on the cost to the consumers resulting in increase in the prices. This further leads to demand for more wage hike. Thus the increase in wage is linked to increase in price and vice versa. It results in vicious cycle and the government faces lots of difficulty in getting out of it.

It's not India alone, where authorities are battling to keep growth on track while reining in price.Governments and policymakers across the world are confronting the same challenge on the back of a sustained spike in global commodity prices that is stoking inflationary expectations.

While India’s wholesale price-based inflation rate rose to a three-and-a-half-year high of 7.83 per cent per cent for the week-ended May 3, China's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, rose 8.5 percent year-on-year in April. Inflation has been a major concern in the European Union (EU) as well. The average forecast for 2008 inflation from experts taking part in the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) rose to 3.0 per cent from 2.5 per cent.

Measuring Inflation – An Indian Perspective

India uses the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) to calculate and then decide the inflation rate in the economy. However, most developed countries use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to calculate inflation.

Wholesale Price Index (WPI)

WPI was first published in 1902, and was one of the more economic indicators available to policy makers until it was replaced by most developed countries by the Consumer Price Index in the 1970s.

WPI is the index that is used to measure the change in the average price level of goods traded in wholesale market. In India, a total of 435 commodities data on price level is tracked through WPI which is an indicator of movement in prices of commodities in all trade and transactions. It is also the price index which is available on a weekly basis with the shortest possible time lag only two weeks. The Indian government has taken WPI as an indicator of the rate of inflation in the economy.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

CPI is a statistical time-series measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is a price index that tracks the prices of a specified basket of consumer goods and services, providing a measure of inflation.

CPI is a fixed quantity price index and considered by some a cost of living index. Under CPI, an index is scaled so that it is equal to 100 at a chosen point in time, so that all other values of the index are a percentage relative to this one.

The argument against WPI is that it does not properly measure the exact price rise an end-consumer will experience because, as the same suggests, it is at the wholesale level. The main problem with WPI calculation is that more than 100 out of the 435 commodities included in the Index have ceased to be important from the consumption point of view. Take, for example, a commodity like coarse grains that go into making of livestock feed. This commodity is insignificant, but continues to be considered while measuring inflation.

India constituted the last WPI series of commodities in 1993-94; but has not updated it till now that economists argue the Index has lost relevance and cannot be the barometer to calculate inflation.

WPI is supposed to measure impact of prices on business. But in India it is used to measure the impact on consumers. Many commodities not consumed by consumers get calculated in the index. And it does not factor in services which have assumed so much importance in the economy.

But then what stops India from shifting over to CPI? The problems it seems are many. First of all, in India, there are four different types of CPI indices, and that makes switching over to the Index from WPI fairly risky and unwieldy. The four CPI series are: CPI Industrial Workers; CPI Urban Non-Manual Employees; CPI Agricultural laborers; and CPI Rural labor. Secondly, the CPI cannot be used in India because there is too much of a lag in reporting CPI numbers. The WPI is published on a weekly basis and the CPI, on a monthly basis. And in India, inflation is calculated on a weekly basis.

Concerns for India

A high rate of inflation could have a significant bearing on Indian economy’s overall growth through lower aggregate demand of manufactured items and low investment growth. Besides, a fear of a possible recession in the USA could worsen matters further. Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council had projected an 8.5 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth for India in 2008-09. But now the growth could fall further as policy focus shifts from high growth to price control. After growing at a blistering 9.6 per cent in 2006-07, government’s own estimates said it grew by 8.7 per cent in 2007-08. The effect of the high rates of inflation on the India growth story would depend on how long the situation of high inflation persists. The pressure on inflation is likely to persist due to high crude oil prices.

What is driving inflation in the current scenario?

But why are prices rising? Is it because of oil? With prices of global crude oil crossing $120 per barrel, oil is definitely one of the drivers. But why should high oil prices increase the cost of pulses, or fruits, which are grown at home? After the recent revision of retail prices of petrol and diesel, which has more closely aligned domestic and international prices, there haven’t been any more changes in domestic petroleum prices. Then is it because people have suddenly started eating more pulses and fish? Well, pulses are not really close substitutes of rice and wheat. Irrespective of regions and incomes, they have been staple fodder for Indian households—rich or poor—down the ages. As far as fish is concerned, the outbreak of bird flu and panic culling of chickens might have seen a spurt in fish prices in West Bengal and some neighboring states. But again, that’s not a convincing explanation for increases in fruit and vegetable prices.

Rise in food prices in India is essentially a result of supply shortfalls. With demand unchanged, lower supply leads to lower availability and concomitant price increases. In times when supplies are fine, food prices do not contribute to inflation. On the primary goods front, which consists of fruits, vegetables, food-grains etc. it is not that straight-forward. Why the price rise in primary goods is not straight-forward is that while on the one hand, it is a clear case of demand-pull inflation, on the other, it is also a bit of a supply shock when one considers the fact that there is an abnormally high percentage of fruits and vegetables that goes to waste because of the lack of cold-storage facilities. Some estimates say 50 per cent of produce goes to waste and that is a conservative number. Other than food prices, inflation can pick up due to higher prices of oil as well as manufactured items. However, from a common man’s perspective, higher food prices make him most conscious about inflation since he starts feeling the pinch on almost a daily basis. This is precisely where the current bout of inflation has acquired a damaging dimension. It has been reported that the manufacturing capacity in India is running around 95 per cent, which usually means it is running at full capacity. Therefore, when the price of manufactured products is increasing, it means that demand is usually higher than supply and that is a clear case of demand-pull inflation.

The euphoria over 9% GDP growth has made many overlook the fact that most of North India didn’t get usual rainfall this winter. This might affect the rabi output. There are already reports of oilseeds production taking a hit and forcing customs duty cuts on a variety of edible oils for increasing imports. There will probably be more supply concerns for other crops also, if the overall rabi crop is much smaller this time around. On the oil front, global crude prices show no signs of relenting. Though with elections drawing closer, further pass-throughs are unlikely, the ‘imported’ pressure on domestic prices will continue to remain.

This brings us to manufacturing. Normally, policymakers do not tend to lose their sleep over some escalation in manufacturing prices. Good demand for manufacturing usually results harder prices. However, this time the situation is somewhat different. Domestic manufacturing is facing difficulties on account of high prices of imported raw materials, particularly metals. Sustained high input prices will, sooner or later, force producers to increase finished product prices. This is likely to unleash a chain effect of price rises throughout the economy as users of manufactured inputs also start raising their prices. Higher prices of auto parts leading to higher prices of passenger cars are a typical example. The worst-affected will be the average consumer. With high food prices hitting hard at home, the situation won’t much better outside with purchasables also becoming dearer.

In India, growth and prices usually tend to move together. Either they rise in tandem, or remain moderate. There is no doubt that high growth with low prices continues to remain the foremost objective of macroeconomic management. However, in a country where supply isn’t very fast in responding to changes in demand, flare-ups in prices are unavoidable. Thus high growth with moderate prices is hard to achieve on a sustained basis unless supply-side constraints are taken care of. The spread of organised retail, particularly food retail, can help by ensuring quick delivery of agri-produce to consumers. That might involve a greater participation of foreign retailers.

Government measures to control Inflation

We all know the phenomenal growth of Indian economy in the last few years. This growth has not come without its side-effects. One of the causes for the increase in the prices of essential commodities has been due to the fact that both India and China have been recording excellent growth in recent years. It has to be noted that China and India have a combined population of 2.5 billion people.

Given this size of population even a modest $100 increase in the per capita income of these two countries would translate into approximately $250 billion in additional demand for commodities. This has put an extraordinary highly demand on various commodities. Surely growth will come at a cost.

The excessive global liquidity has facilitated buoyant growth of money and credit in 2005-06 and 2006-07. For instance, the net accretion to the foreign exchange reserves aggregates to in excess of $50 billion (about Rs 225,000 crore) in 2006-07. Crucially, this incremental flow of foreign exchange into the country has resulted in increased credit flow by our banks. Naturally this is another fuel for growth and crucially, inflation.

The Indian Government has been trying hard to contain inflation as it also has a political dimension. It has tightened the money supply. In addition, it has raised the export duties on many basic commodities and at the same time, tried to encourage imports by reducing the import duties. It also has announced many subsidies and has vowed to break the cartel existing between cement and steel companies. In addition it is also taking measures to ban futures trading of essential commodities.

The Reserve Bank of India has adopted the strategy of dealing with excessive liquidity through the Market Stabilization Scheme (MSS). Similarly, the increase in repo rates (ostensibly to make credit overextension costly) and increase in CRR rates (to restrict excessive money supply) are policy interventions that have been undertaken by the RBI. But these policies are with serious limitations in the Indian context with huge forex inflows

It appears that the RBI's dilemma can be resolved if not by easing the monetary policy, but at least by holding on to it, so as to address growth concerns. Any tightening of monetary policy would have serious implications at a time when the investment climate is not at the pink of health. Further, in a cost push inflation scenario, any monetary tightening will be ineffective.

It also a timely reminder about the need to keep a low interest rate cushion when the economy is doing well, so that it gives the Government a sufficient enough interest rate buffer that it can exercise and increase rates when inflation rears its head.

For the foreseeable future ahead, Indian economy will have inflationary pressures stoked up due to factors that are cost-push than demand-pull. Inflation is more likely to arise out of the economy's inability to provide the critical inputs necessary to sustain the fast pace of growth. In such circumstances, monetary policy will be more critical in lowering the cost of capital and encouraging growth, and will have only a minimal role in controlling inflation.

In the final analysis, a 7-7.5% GDP growth rate is by any yardstick a very good deal, especially at a time of such tumult in the global economy. Given the fact that the robust 9% plus growth of the past few years, was taking its toll on an over-stretched economy and supply side constraints were becoming increasingly evident, a relative cooling off should even be welcomed.

Given all our supply side constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks, sustaining a 9% growth without stoking off inflation was impossibility. A slowdown in growth to 7-7.5% should suit us, in so far as it would help prevent over-heating and consequent build up of inflationary pressures, all of which have the potential of squeezing medium-term growth itself.

When CP, Ritu and myself moved into our current house almost a year back, never had we thought we would find such a “?#$*&” partner in Mr. Sikandar Mashayak. I have consciously put an encrypted epithet in the previous line bcoz thats what characterizes him. He is a fully encrypted man top to bottom, right to left. Its impossible to decipher him, to describe him in two or three words….he can be amicable and apathetic at the same time, he can be happy and sad at the same time. However ironical it sounds, but that’s what I have realized in the eight months that we have been together in “real” sense. He is a intermingled bundle of yarn which needs to unwindled with utmost care. These last eight months have been emphatically great in true sense because Sikki has been the most vibrant amongst all of us. Be it treating all of us outside or having a byte @ Corner House or dragging us all for juice in the night or his favorite ‘HIT’ting the kitchen.

I have thoroughly enjoyed his company in all these months. Because it had become a ritual for both of us waking up early on the weekends and binging on the mouth watering masala vadas and puri-bhaji in the vicinity of our house. He had been my partner to Food World for getting the groceries or the HITLER who made me accompanying him to his favorite KFC( had to watch him eating as I am an eggetarian) or munching cornflakes and omlette in the morning. And add to that his “spicy” stories which myself and CP had become addicted to!!!! And to top it all, the night rides on the relatively lesser densed Outer Ring Road….that was the most soothing experience.

But apart from all these, what we will miss the most is ‘Sikkisms’. Most of these I cant put up here ;) but “Don’t expect anything from anyone”, “Destroy your potential for authentic creativity” (whatever that means!) and the world famous by now “FTA”. However clichéd they became in the last few months but still they have their own charm.

Hope u have a great time @ Purdue. We will miss you BIGGGGGGGGGGGG time. I surely did miss you when I was toddling along alone in Food World last week!!!!

See you when I see you!!!!!!!!

What happened today wasn't something new..... just that it came after a refreshing gap of 3-4 days......I generally commute to my office by an Autorickshaw.... thanks to the superb crowd in the BMTC buses. So I got up a to relatively hotter morning and racing against time and power cut and the hence resulting water shortage got ready for my office well on time. And then started my Pursuit Of Finding an Auto...first few religiously refused to come the Tech Park where my (and many more....ob the term itself describes that there are a plethora of MNCs there) office is located, I got one who readily agreed and said 10 Rs extra boss(thats one line I listen more than Good Morning every morning). I denied it for obvious reasons feeling that ek jaayega to doosra aayega and yeah doosra aaya jaroor....(just for non-Bangolereans.....the charges for nimma bengalooru auto is Rs 6 per km and my office is almost 4 km.....so that makes it Rs 24 one way!) This one promptly let me get in.....and just when I was thinking that this chap was good enough....he said "boss...70Rs!!!!"....I was like ..Dude..its morning 9:00am and u r asking me 3 times the normal fare. And the fact that irritated me the most was that he was so convincingly kewl in asking for that exorbitant fare as if i was going to that place for the first time! And this incident is not the first of its kind atleast as far as my experiences go. Thot this is the right to pen down or rather type down my experiences....
Starting with the most common....most of the times these men ask for 5-10-15 Rs extra and with the arrogance that "meter se chaloonga" but 10 Rs extra...Man..are u doing me a favour by starting the meter. I supposed that's wat the meter is for!!! And this happens both ways....i mean during my ride to office and then back home. Hearing an innocent 40-50..even 80 Rs for 4 km has now become a habit and hence it rarely surprises me!!! The next thing is they will almost never take you by the shorter route. and in case you tell them Boss...Take route A instead of B they will grunt annoyingly. Another experience which i suppose might be rare is really interesting. I took one auto from my home and to my astonishment the meter started ticking past the minimum 12 Rs when i believe that i hadnt even crossed 1.5km mark( now that i have taken the same route for almost 8 months twice a day i can take the liberty of making an educated guess!)...so i humbly asked Boss yeh kya ho raha hian ..aapka meter to abhi se badhne laga.. so he arrogantly ordered me to get out of the auto..and while i was still talking to him with the vehicle parked along the side of the road...it ticked from 13 to 13.50.....and then i lost my patience!!! i know that in Pune the meters do have a temporal dimension but not in Bangalore surely..then he too understood that he has been caught red-handed and then he said that the meter had suddenly developed some problems.....i just smiled at my obtruding ignorance and had no other way than to agree with him...and lo..the moment i got down from the auto he tried luring other passenger in his trap....this has happened to me twice in quick succession. Yet another really amusing experience is that in some autos, the meter probably acquires Artificial Intelligence(i suppose that might be the next reason these people will give!) and it runs directly from 19.50 to 30 Rs. and add to that the time and effort it takes to convince him that his meter is at fault and not me. Yet another one is these people are never ready to come to a place u want to go(sounds similar to Murphy's Law!). This incident happened near the Commercial Street. We(myself and 2 of my friends) asked atleast 4-5 autos for a drive to CMH Road but no one agreed. And finally CP(my friend) lost his cool and asked one of them kahan chaloge bhaiyaa..chaliye mujhe bhi wahi jaana hain!! Or another way for a similar experience is: CV Raman Nagar..achchca CV Raman Nagar main kahan..ok..Lake ke pass..thik hain 40 Rs hoga boss" . And when i ask him out of mere frustration that ok .. kahan tak chaloge CV Raman Nagar main meter se...prompt comes the reply that he doesnt want to come...then why the hell did u ask ki mujhe kahan jaana hain...!!!!!!!! Also try never take an auto within the airport arena for as per my experience u can really end up emptying your pockets paying the fare!!! There are many more experiences to add to this.....but am not in a mood to put them down...i suppose these are enough to alert any of the gullible junta travelling in an auto. As far as i am concerned, though i have to take this compulsory pleasure of commuting in one of the most expensive modes of transport in the city, still i can not enjoy the road side views because i have to keep a watch on the autorickshaw meter ticking at a hare's pace and constantly guide the driver so as not to allow him to take the longer route as surprisingly he rarely seems know the shorter route. And to top this up, its ur fault if u expect u will get change of upto 2-3 Rs back from him. Dare to ask for the same if u ready to take a really wierd yuckwala smiley from him. Its as if u are denying him his prerogative!!!!Am sure there are better ways to begin your day with! :)
But these experiences apart....some of these gentlemen are in true sense gentle......i do get autos whose final fare comes even as low as 22Rs. and ppl who also return your change and ppl who really seem to know shorter than the shortest route u know.....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!